根据独立分析公司DatamonitorHealthcare发布的报告，未来10年，美国、日本、欧盟五大主要市场（法国、德国、意大利、西班牙、英国），HIV药物的合并销售额将增长40%，从2013年的119亿美元增长至2022年的168亿美元。据预测，在经过新药推出及全球艾滋病患病率增加的刺激下，HIV药物市场将经历一个强劲的增长期，并在2020年达到173亿美元的峰值。
报告指出，到2016年，抗逆转录病毒药物Tivicay（dolutegravir）必将成为HIV治疗的主流整合酶抑制剂。
Tivicay由葛兰素史克（GSK）、辉瑞（Pfizer）、盐野义（Shionogi）共同成立的HIV/AIDS合资企业ViiVHealthcare销售。该药于2013年夏季获FDA批准，并于去年11月获加拿大卫生部批准。
DatamonitorHealthcare分析师预计，截止2022年，Tivicay在美国、日本、欧盟五大主要市场（法国、德国、意大利、西班牙、英国）的年销售额将达到21亿美元，相当于这些市场价值总和的12.6%。
在临床试验中，Tivicay疗效优于强生（JNJ）的蛋白酶抑制剂Prezista（darunavir，地瑞那韦），同时与当前的标准护理药物整合酶抑制剂Isentress（raltegravir，拉替拉韦）疗效相当。Isentress由默沙东（Merck&Co）开发。
据预测，若获欧盟批准，Tivicay必将对HIV市场产生巨大的影响。
分析师JosephHedden称，Tivicay与其他一些竞争药物不同，该药不需要与药物促进剂联合用药，同时也具有一个非常有吸引力的耐药属性。在接下来几年里，以整合酶抑制剂销售额计算，这些属性将推动Tivicay至排名第一的位置。
Tivicay set to become leading HIV treatment by 2016
Antiretroviral drug Tivicay (dolutegravir) is set to become the leading integrase inhibitor for the treatment of HIV by 2016, according to independent analyst firm Datamonitor Healthcare.
Tivicay is marketed by ViiV Healthcare, the HIV/AIDS joint venture set up by GlaxoSmithKline (LSE: GSK) with Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and Shionogi (TYO: 4507). In November it was approved in Canada after being approved by the US Food and Drug Administration in the summer. Datamonitor analysts say it is expected to generate annual sales of up to $2.1 billion by 2022 in the USA, Japan and five major EU markets of France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK, equating to 12.6% of the total combined value of these markets.
Better efficacy than Prezista or Isentress
Tivicay had better efficacy than the protease inhibitor Prezista (darunavir), from Johnson & Johnson’s (NYSE: JNJ) Janssen Therapeutics division, in clinical trials, and comparable efficacy with current integrase inhibitor standard of care Merck & Co’s (NYSE: MRK) Isentress (raltegravir). It is predicted that the drug will have a huge impact on the market following EU approval.
Joseph Hedden, analyst at Datamonitor Healthcare, said: “Unlike a number of its competitors, Tivicay doesn’t require co-dosing with a boosting agent. It also has a very attractive resistance profile. In the next few years, we are expecting these attributes to propel the drug into first place in terms of integrase inhibitor sales.”
Global HIV sales will reach $17.3 billion in 2020
The combined sales value of HIV drugs in the seven major markets is expected to increase by 40% in the next decade, rising from $11.9 billion in 2013 to $16.8 billion in 2022. It is forecast that the market will peak at $17.3 billion in 2020 after a strong period of growth stimulated by new drug launches and the increasing prevalence of HIV.
Between the forecast dates, the global patient population for HIV is expected to increase slowly, from 1.23 million in 2013 to just under 1.4 million in 2022. Out of the five major EU markets, the UK will remain largest by patient number over the next decade, with the patient population estimated to be 135 million by 2022. The projected annual growth rate for the UK is 6.2%, the fastest of all the major markets.
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